E-readers versus tablets: Pew data seems off, but the overall e-reading trend is what's important

I'm a big fan of the Pew Research Center, particularly the Internet & American Life Project surveys and reports, but I'm wondering about its most recent report about e-book readers. According to Pew, 12% of US adults now have an e-reader of some kind, such as Amazon's Kindle or the Nook from Barnes & Noble. In contrast, the organization says that tablet purchases -- think Apple's iPad -- have been relatively flat.

• E-reader growth: 6% to 12% of US adults from November 2010 to May 2011.
• Tablet growth: 5% to 8% in the same time period

Why the skepticism? The numbers just don't seem right. First of all, it's tough to get good numbers for the e-reader market, as the company that dominates, Amazon, refuses to divulge sales numbers (though it does say "Kindle is the bestselling e-reader in the world"). Second, almost all tablet sales are from Apple, and it reports strong growth. For example, reporting its results for the quarter that ended 12/25/10, the company said it had sold 7.3 million iPads. For the quarter that ended 3/26/11, the company reported selling 4.7 million iPads. While it looks like the drop was from lack of demand, it really had to do with the transition from the original product to the iPad2 and the inability to manufacture enough of the second-generation devices. Even with the hiccup, iPad sales should show greater consumer adoption in the Pew data.

For the e-reader market to verify and sustain the dramatic growth over tablets as seen in the Pew data, the only two viable candidates (Kindle and Nook) would have to sell way more devices than seem reasonable and the iPad would have to tank in sales. Yes, the price point for e-readers is much lower than tablets (think $130 versus $500), but estimates of sales of both devices don't seem to support the trend in the survey data. Some estimates of Kindle sales:

• 7.1 million Kindles in 2010 ... according to Barclays (via an All Things D article).
• 17.5 million Kindles in  2011 ... according to Citi Investment (via a TechCrunch article)

Compare that to estimates for iPad shipments:

• 32 million iPads for Apples 2011 fiscal year (9/10-9/11) ... from Needham (via this this Computerworld article)
• 14.4 million iPads in Q311 (calendar) ... from CLSA (via this Business Insider article)

Whatever numbers you believe, it doesn't make sense that e-readers have grown that much more than tablets in the time period reported by Pew ... or that the supposed trend will continue.

So what is the possible issue with the data? When asking about relatively new technology, survey questions can often be misinterpreted by consumers. I'd guess that (mostly) dedicated eReaders, such as the Kindle and Nook, and the e-reader capability of the iPad tablet is confusing to consumers. If, for example, a consumer uses iBooks on the iPad to read an eBook, will they answer the survey question about an e-reader accurately? Probably not.

All this may be moot in the end, as eBooks are taking off and the device will not matter so much in the future. Dedicated e-readers are adding a broader set of non-book functions, and tablets are likely to come down in weight, increase battery life, and drop in average selling price (ASP) price. In the end, the increasing popularity of reading electronic books is the key for authors and the publishing industry, not the type or brand of the device.

Author John Green gets an A+ for creative promotion

On the heels of writing about the marketing machine that is James Patterson, I came across this interesting promotional effort by YA (young adult) author John Green. According to an article in Publisher's Weekly, Green will provide a personally signed copy of his upcoming book -- still being written/edited -- to every person who pre-orders "The Fault in Our Stars" (the book itself is not due until May 2012).

Now, I've never heard of Mr. Green, but the articles states he has over 1 million Twitter followers and 500,000 YouTube subscribers. With such a large following, the announcement of this promotion apparently resulted in his forthcoming book reaching No. 1 at both the online bookstores of Amazon and Barnes & Noble. That is pretty amazing.

Being a marketing consultant by day, the great thing about the promotion is he is not only using social media to announce and fuel interest in it, he is using social media to document it. Talk about a stroke of genius. Many that don't initially hear about the announcement may find out about it from forwarded links and referrals from friends enabled by sites like Twitter, Facebook, Tumblr, and YouTube; and the process of documenting the promotion should lead to even more awareness and pre-orders.

Like the disproven saw that anything interesting has been done, fantastic and novel uses of social media are obviously possible. Of course, the next few hundred authors that copy this idea may also garner some success, but they won't necessarily get the media attention from being first. Patterson would be proud!

Some author links that may give you ideas about turbocharging your author platform include:

• Web site: johngreenbooks.com
• Twitter: realjohngreen
• YouTube channel: vlogbrothers
• Tumblr
• Latest book: "Paper Towns"

PS I just watched his most recent video. Green is certainly energetic, entertaining, and willing to promote. He's not your stereotypical shy, nerdy wordsmith.

The Patterson Publishing Machine

If you like to wander the aisles of what's left of physical bookstores, browse Amazon or Barnes & Noble Web sites, or follow the New York Times best seller lists, you will recognize what a publishing machine James Patterson is. For example:

• According to today's NYTimes "Combined Print & E-book Fiction" list: His works occupy the No. 8 and 34 spots.
• According to a Reuters story on him today: He has authored or part-authored 45 No. 1 best sellers that have resulted in around 230 million sales. Whats more, "Last year Patterson outsold Stephen King, Dan Brown, Stieg Larsson and John Grisham combined, and already in 2011 he is outselling all four combined, according to his publisher Little, Brown & Co."
• From his official web site, "He is the first author to have #1 new titles simultaneously on The New York Times adult and children's bestsellers lists and is the only author to have five new hardcover novels debut at #1 on the list in one year ..."

If you missed it, there was an amazing article about him in January 20, 2010 issue of the New York Times Magazine, called "James Patterson Inc." Some tidbits from that article:

• "... with the help of his stable of co-authors, he published nine original hardcover books in 2009 and will publish at least nine more in 2010."
• "Since 2006, one out of every 17 novels bought in the United States was written by James Patterson."
• His "breakout book" was published in just 1993 ("Along Came a Spider")

In a publishing world where author platforms, e-books, and self-publishing are hot topics, the most important thing to remember is that he helped create his success. To promote "Spider," he developed and paid for his own advertising spot for the book. In an age of free Twitter and YouTube accounts, the self-promotion opportunities abound, though the ability to get heard amidst all the noise is the tough part. It will be difficult to get noticed using Patterson-like techniques, but it's not because of the lack of services and channels.

So while I doubt there will be another publishing machine that is like Mr. Patterson, those who want to succeed in the current environment should learn from his self-promotion activities and the way he tackles writing as a business. Sure, for those writing for art or who feel above such commercial activities, Patterson may represent all that is wrong with the book business; and while many may find his writing like filling up on empty calories, he is responsible for many people reading.

At the very least, aspiring authors who dream of making a full or partial living off their output should know the Patterson story.

Update on Familiar

Familiar, the current working title for what was originally called The Water Stone (and may be called that eventually) is currently checking in at 95,500 words. That breaks down to 32 chapters and 460 pages when formatted to PDF. If you want to read a copy or some partial chapters, I have versions available in PDF for printing (recommend: spiral binding, double-sided, black and white for about $40 at Staples), ePub (for iPads), and mobi (for Kindle). Haven't had a Nook request, but I'm sure that is doable. Got to love Scrivener! If you are writing a book, you need to check that software out.

I'm still stuck in the self-imposed nether land of deciding whether to revise my perpetually-changing query letter or going the self-publishing route. Publishing is undergoing a radical change with the consumer adoption of e-readers and tablets, so the self-publishing route is more appealing these days. That doesn't mean a physical book couldn't be produced, but it would most likely be available through a print-on-demand outfit, such as Lulu.

Some quick thoughts on the choices ...

Pros of self-publishing:

• No agent fee (15% flat)
• No waiting for an agent to respond to a query letter
• No waiting for an agent to entice a publisher
• No dealing with a publisher tweaking the content (in a bad way)
• No waiting for it to be published according to the publisher's schedule

Cons:

• All marketing is dependent on me (and friends and family)
• Have to pay for a "real" editor to get rid of all that grammar/tense/word repetition stuff that still lurks in the pages
• No support of a publisher (though that support is probably minimal except for a lucky few)

Thanks to everybody who has read Familiar in its various forms and provided feedback, and as always, if you know an agent, are married to one, or work out with one in a gym, put in a good word.

A final note, I'm thinking of serializing the manuscript (shouldn't officially call it a book if not published) on this site ... or at least some of the early chapters. Will make that decision sometime soon.

PS: If you know Dave Gillis, tell him he deserves no royalties on the family name. Also, tell him to backcheck for a change.

PPS: There are two chapters of the sequel, so if interested in seeing them in somewhat rough form, let me know. Chloe really shines early on in that one.